A Multi-Model, Multi-Scale Research Program in Stressors, Responses, and Coupled Systems Dynamics at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus

and Earth System Models (ESMs).

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

The new capabilities and interactions outlined in this proposal will be achieved by:

I. Developing a use-inspired, innovative and adaptive framework for multi-model multi-scale research and analysis of integrated impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (I-IAV).

II. Building foundational, modeling integration methods and capabilities with the development of coupling software, emulators, advanced computational and statistical methods, and translational tools.

III. Assessing and establishing best modeling practices, and developing and testing framework evaluation tools, via methods comparisons, diagnostics, and integrated uncertainty analyses.

IV. Creating a better organized multi-sectoral/multi-regional/multi-model community of practice by promoting systematic engagement between the IAM, IAV, and ESM communities, advancing team-based methodological developments and integrated modeling experiments in I-IAV research.

BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE

The need for integrative climate science has increased dramatically over the last two decades, responding to rapid changes occurring at regional scales the urgent needs for improved understanding of the complex dynamics among human and Earth systems and, more specifically, the implications for impacts, adaptations, vulnerabilities, and feedbacks. In such critical areas as the energy-water-nexus and for connected, concentrated infrastructures, newly created integrative modeling frameworks will enable improved fundamental understanding of processes, tipping points, and potential long-term implications of various systems co-evolutionary pathways/options. The work must proceed in a way that makes its results as transparent and credible as possible and the science-based toolsets broadly accessible to other research disciplines, analysis, and decision-support communities.