Coastal SEES: Enhancing sustainability in coastal communities threatened by harmful algal blooms by advancing and integrating environmental and socio-economic modeling

The management of coastal ecosystems for long term sustainability requires an enhanced understanding of the interplay among social, biological, and physical systems. Anticipating and managing future changes is a unique challenge requiring accurate representation and integration of climate drivers, biophysical responses, economic impacts, and adaptation decisions, but also the production of model outputs that are usable for decision making. To enhance usability, this project uses collaborations between scientists and stakeholders to foster mutual learning and the production of information that can support real-world decisions towards sustainability. In particular it focuses on advancing understanding of (1) the coupled human-natural system and (2) knowledge co-production, using harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the Great Lakes as a test case. As HAB events have been increasing globally over the past decade and directly impact ecosystem services for coastal communities (e.g., drinking water provision, fishing and recreation), understanding, predicting and alleviating this water quality issue is a problem of great societal relevance. The location of the study will be western Lake Erie because of the ability to build upon previous research and existing datasets and the team's previous involvement the region's policy networks. This integrated modeling approach is transferable and the results will be applicable to other coastal areas where stakeholders are attempting to manage complex ecological systems. The results will be communicated widely, leveraging the fact that team members are actively engaged in regional and trans-national policy networks to purposefully disseminate the approach and lessons learned. The project will train a cohort of four graduate students and five postdoctoral fellows in an integrated interdisciplinary context.

The work is organized around the overarching question: How does climate influence the biophysical dynamics of freshwater ecosystems and ecosystem services, and how can scientist and stakeholder co-production of information enhance coastal decision-making and sustainability? It will advance the fundamental knowledge of (1) the role of precipitation change and how uncertainty in climate model precipitation affects simulations of phosphorous loading, (2) the role of cold season processes on climate and phosphorous loading, (3) primary climate versus anthropogenic drivers that alter phosphorous loading, (4) the drivers over time and space controlling the size and location of future HABs, (5) how humans and the valuation of ecosystem services respond to HABs, and (6) information usability, by better understanding drivers of use and the kinds of decisions that may emerge from the co-production process. Four stakeholder sectors will be engaged: water treatment, beach management, recreational fishing and agricultural management and policy. Workshops will develop decision-relevant information for and feedback from those responsible for preventing future HABs (considering watershed loading simulations) and those required to adapt to current HABs (considering HAB forecasts).