Cyclone Structure Characterization and Evolution Forecasting Using Cluster Analysis and Statistical-Dynamical Modeling

The PIs seek to gain insights into the dynamics of cyclone structure evolution in three ways: one is the detection and representation of lower-dimensional features by extending the recently developed cyclone phase space diagnostic to all cyclone structure evolutions; the second uses cluster analysis as an aid in defining preferred paths of structural evolution within the cyclone phase space; in the third a regression based statistical dynamical forecast model based on a reduced predictor set will be developed. In addition, some measure of the uncertainty in present operational models for atmospheric cyclones will be sought through a validation of these models based on cyclone phase space diagnostics against their own analyses and a cyclone phase space diagnostic using satellite-derived observations.