INSIGHTS FROM AN ENSEMBLE MARS ATMOSPHERE REANALYSIS SYSTEM

THE ENSEMBLE MARS ATMOSPHERE REANALYSIS SYSTEM (EMARS) SYNTHESIZES DATA FROM THERMAL EMISSION SPECTROMETER (TES) AND MARS CLIMATE SOUNDER (MCS) SPACECRAFT OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE FUSION WITH SHORT-TERM MARS GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (MGCM) FORECASTS USING ENSEMBLE DATA ASSIMILATION. THE RESULTING PRODUCT CREATED BY OUR TEAM AT PSU UMD GFDL AND AER WITH THE SUPPORT OF MDAP IS A COMPREHENSIVE GRIDDED DATASET OF ATMOSPHERIC PROPERTIES TEMPERATURE WIND SURFACE PRESSURE AND (DUST AND WATER ICE CLOUD) AEROSOLS AND THEIR UNCERTAINTIES SPANNING SEVERAL MARS YEARS. WE SEEK TO CONTINUE OUR SUCCESSFUL PROGRAM WITH PLANS TO USE EMARS (AND CONSEQUENTLY TES AND MCS OBSERVATIONS) TO EXPLORE FACETS OF MARTIAN WEATHER AND CLIMATE. EVALUATION OF PHYSICAL PHENOMENA IN REANALYSES SUCH AS EMARS INCLUDES THE PLANETARY CIRCULATION AND ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE POLAR VORTEX TRAVELING WAVES DUST CYCLE WATER CYCLE POLAR CAPS AND THERMAL TIDES. OUR PARTICULAR FOCUS IN THIS PROPOSAL WILL BE ON NEAR SURFACE TRAVELING WAVES AND THEIR KEY ROLE IN THE INITIATION AND MAINTENANCE OF DUST STORMS THE GRAND CHALLENGE FOR MARTIAN METEOROLOGY. STRONGLY RELATED TO THIS GOAL IS THE ACCURATE DEPICTION OF TEMPERATURE WIND AND FOUR-DIMENSIONAL AEROSOL DISTRIBUTIONS AND IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF DUST LIFTING (SOURCES) TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION (SINKS) USING ALL AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND THE BEST MODELING AND ASSIMILATION TECHNIQUES. OUR PREVIOUS EFFORTS HAVE DEMONSTRATED THE SYNERGY BETWEEN REANALYSIS DEVELOPMENT AND SCIENCE INVESTIGATIONS: VARYING DUST AND WATER ICE CLOUD AMOUNTS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IMPROVES ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND ANALYSIS ERRORS (GREYBUSH ET AL. 2012); MORE FREQUENT ANALYSES IMPROVE THE ESTIMATES OF THERMAL TIDES (ZHAO ET AL. 2015); AND THE VERTICAL AVERAGING OF OBSERVATIONS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF TRAVELING WAVES (GREYBUSH ET AL. 2015). TO GAIN INSIGHTS ON TRAVELING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND DUST STORMS FROM AN ATMOSPHERE AND AEROSOL REANALYSIS WE WILL 1) ASSESS TRAVELING WAVES IN EXISTING EMARS PRODUCTS AND EXPLORE SENSITIVITY OF WAVE FEATURES TO OBSERVING SYSTEM AND VERTICAL RESOLUTION ZONAL MEAN ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE AND THE CO2 CYCLE; 2) EXAMINE THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL AEROSOL DISTRIBUTIONS ON TRAVELING WAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH REANALYSES THAT UPDATE DUST AND ICE CLOUDS BASED ON TES AND MCS TEMPERATURES AND OPACITIES; 3) EVALUATE MCS RADIANCE ASSIMILATION USING THE AER FORWARD MODEL PARTICULARLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH OPACITY; 4) CREATE A HIGH RESOLUTION REANALYSIS USING THE CUBED SPHERE MGCM WITH AN IMPROVED HYBRID DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME; 5) INVESTIGATE THE ORIGINS AND EVOLUTION AND PREDICTABILITY OF FLUSHING STORMS AND GLOBAL DUST STORMS USING REANALYSIS WINDS OPACITIES AND SPACECRAFT IMAGERY; 6) PREPARE A MULTIANNUAL REANALYSIS AND EVALUATE IT BY COMPARING TO OTHER OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSES AND DELIVER IT TO THE MARS ATMOSPHERE COMMUNITY. OUR FEATURE-BASED VALIDATION WILL ENABLE FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS IN EMARS TO BETTER REPRESENT THE COMPLEXITY OF MARTIAN WEATHER. THE FOUR-DIMENSIONAL EVOLUTION OF AEROSOL FIELDS AND THEIR IMPACT IN TURN ON PLANETARY CIRCULATION TRAVELING WAVE AMPLITUDES AND THE STRENGTH OF TIDES WILL BE CONSIDERED. WE WILL EXPLORE THE CIRCULATION FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH DUST STORMS AND THEIR ROLE IN DUST LIFTING AND TRANSPORT A STUDY THAT CAN ONLY BE ACHIEVED USING ATMOSPHERE AND AEROSOL REANALYSES. IMPLICATIONS FOR PREDICTABILITY OF MARS DUST STORMS WILL BE INVESTIGATED.