PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION IN FIRE-PRONE FORESTS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE

Forest-based carbon sequestration carries the risk that disturbance will return this carbon to the atmosphere. The frequency of large wildfires has been increasing as a result of past management and on-going climate change. Large wildfires can cause forests to shift from carbon sinks to sources for decades and when coupled with on-going climate change have the potential to cause vegetation type conversion to non-forested types. Thus, both the mitigation benefits and system level resiliency for adaptation are at risk. The overall goal of this proposed research is to project how inducing changes in forest structure to reduce wildfire severity may alter the climate change mitigation potential and adaptive capacity in the Rocky and Sierra Nevada Mountains. This project will use several approaches to model future forest growth, future wildfire, and future wildfire emissions under a range of climate change projections. Model simulations will be informed by working with natural resource managers to develop data products that support forest management planning.