A dynamic capture-recapture model for software defect prediction

Several models have been developed that attempt to predict the total number of defects in a software product. One such approach uses the capture-recapture model, a technique employed by biologists for predicting wildlife populations. In this method once the software is built and defects begin to be identified a prediction can be made for the total number of software defects present. But capture-recapture models rely on expert inspectors and the technique cannot be employed once the software has been released. The work reported here extends the capture-recapture technique to the post-inspection phase and to where inspection data is unavailable, by using user defect reports. The proposed technique does not rely on expert inspectors and is particularly suitable for open source software.