A framework for analyzing wild turkey summer sighting data

Wildlife agencies collect data on productivity (e.g., proportion of hens with poults and number of poults per hen) of wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) to monitor population status and trends. However, sampling protocols to collect productivity data rely on opportunistic observations reported by wildlife agency personnel and the public and have changed over time and differed among agencies. A protocol to standardize data collection was adopted by most state wildlife agencies in 2019, but long-term historical datasets exist that cannot be analyzed readily to make inferences about spatial and temporal patterns in wild turkey productivity. We developed statistical models to allow comparisons and model trends in productivity among and within states even though data collection protocols changed over time and differed among states. We found greater spatial variation in the proportion of hens with poults than the number of poults per brood, which may reflect how environmental factors influence wild turkey productivity. Our models can also provide inferences about productivity when data are limited or temporally discontinuous for some spatial units. Additionally, we found that temporal and spatial variation in data collection, even under the new protocol, can affect inferences about trends in productivity. The statistical models we developed address the uncontrolled nature of when and where data are collected and offer the ability to investigate long-term patterns of productivity in relation to factors such as changing climate or habitat conditions.