A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Prem P. Chapagain; J. S. Van kessel; J. S. Karns; D. R. Wolfgang; E. Hovingh; K. A. Nelen; Y. H. Schukken; Y. T. Grohn

doi:10.1017/S0950268807008400

A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Prem P. Chapagain, J. S. Van kessel, J. S. Karns, D. R. Wolfgang, E. Hovingh, K. A. Nelen, Y. H. Schukken, Y. T. Grohn

Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

27 Scopus citations

Abstract

We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	263-272
Number of pages	10
Journal	Epidemiology and Infection
Volume	136
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008400
State	Published - Feb 2008

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Epidemiology
Infectious Diseases

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10.1017/S0950268807008400

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title = "A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd",

abstract = "We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.",

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AU - Chapagain, Prem P.

AU - Van kessel, J. S.

AU - Karns, J. S.

AU - Wolfgang, D. R.

AU - Hovingh, E.

AU - Nelen, K. A.

AU - Schukken, Y. H.

AU - Grohn, Y. T.

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AB - We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

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A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Abstract

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