A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Prem P. Chapagain, J. S. Van kessel, J. S. Karns, D. R. Wolfgang, E. Hovingh, K. A. Nelen, Y. H. Schukken, Y. T. Grohn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

27 Scopus citations


We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)263-272
Number of pages10
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Issue number2
StatePublished - Feb 2008

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases


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