A multiple-models approach to violence risk assessment among people with mental disorder

Actuarial models for violence risk assessment have proliferated in recent years. In this article, we describe an approach that integrates the predictions of many actuarial risk-assessment models, each of which may capture a different but important facet of the interactive relationship between the measured risk factors and violence. Using this multiple-models approach, we ultimately combined the results of five prediction models generated by the iterative classification tree (ICT) methodology developed in the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. This combination of models produced results not only superior to those of any of its constituent models, but superior to any other actuarial violence risk-assessment procedure reported in the literature to date.