TY - JOUR
T1 - A quantitative risk-benefit analysis of changes in population fish consumption
AU - Cohen, Joshua T.
AU - Bellinger, David C.
AU - Connor, William E.
AU - Kris-Etherton, Penny M.
AU - Lawrence, Robert S.
AU - Savitz, David A.
AU - Shaywitz, Bennett A.
AU - Teutsch, Steven M.
AU - Gray, George M.
N1 - Funding Information:
The expert panel for this project was chaired by Steven M. Teutsch. The remainder of the panel consisted of the following co-authors of this paper: David Bellinger, William Connor, Penny Kris-Etherton, Robert Lawrence, David Savitz, and Bennett Shaywitz. This work was supported by a grant from the National Food Processors Association Research Foundation (NFPA-RF) and the Fisheries Scholarship Fund. The sponsor played no role in the design or conduct of this study or in the identification and interpretation of the literature, and the authors retained control over the final form of the manuscript. NFPA-RF did offer comments on an earlier draft of this manuscript, in response to which we made minor revisions (details are available upon request). Member companies of the NFPA-RF may be affected by the findings of research that funded my participation on the panel that wrote this paper.
PY - 2005/11
Y1 - 2005/11
N2 - Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of nutritional benefits. To investigate the aggregate impacts of hypothetical shifts in fish consumption, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgments). Effects investigated include prenatal cognitive development, coronary heart disease mortality, and stroke. Substitution of fish with high MeHg concentrations with fish containing less MeHg among women of childbearing age yields substantial developmental benefits and few negative impacts. However, if women instead decrease fish consumption, countervailing risks substantially reduce net benefits. If other adults (mistakenly and inappropriately) also reduce their fish consumption, the net public health impact is negative. Although high compliance with recommended fish consumption patterns can improve public health, unintended shifts in consumption can lead to public health losses. Risk managers should investigate and carefully consider how populations will respond to interventions, how those responses will influence nutrient intake and contaminant exposure, and how these changes will affect aggregate public health.
AB - Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of nutritional benefits. To investigate the aggregate impacts of hypothetical shifts in fish consumption, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgments). Effects investigated include prenatal cognitive development, coronary heart disease mortality, and stroke. Substitution of fish with high MeHg concentrations with fish containing less MeHg among women of childbearing age yields substantial developmental benefits and few negative impacts. However, if women instead decrease fish consumption, countervailing risks substantially reduce net benefits. If other adults (mistakenly and inappropriately) also reduce their fish consumption, the net public health impact is negative. Although high compliance with recommended fish consumption patterns can improve public health, unintended shifts in consumption can lead to public health losses. Risk managers should investigate and carefully consider how populations will respond to interventions, how those responses will influence nutrient intake and contaminant exposure, and how these changes will affect aggregate public health.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.amepre.2005.07.003
DO - 10.1016/j.amepre.2005.07.003
M3 - Review article
C2 - 16242599
AN - SCOPUS:26944495334
SN - 0749-3797
VL - 29
SP - 325-334.e6
JO - American Journal of Preventive Medicine
JF - American Journal of Preventive Medicine
IS - 4
ER -