A Risk Assessment Model for Stroke in the Early Post-Transplant Period in Adult Cardiac Allograft Recipients: A UNOS Database Analysis

Background: Stroke risk in adult cardiac allograft recipients in the early postoperative period remains less defined. This study attempts to develop a risk assessment model in this population. Methods: Patients (≥18 years of age) between 2005 and 2015 who underwent cardiac transplantation were selected from the United Network for Organ Sharing database. The final study cohort had 20,915 patients. Risk factors were identified and multivariate logistic regression was used to test associations. SAS software was used for analyses. Results: Male recipients had a lower risk (odds ratio [OR] 0.7 [0.6-0.92]; P < .05) for stroke. Prolonged ischemic time (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3), mechanical ventilation (OR 1.6 [1.2-1.9]), left ventricular assist device support (OR 1.8 [1.4-2.3]), black or Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.33 [1.04-1.7]), days in status 1A (OR 1.05 [1.01-1.1]), recipient creatinine (OR 1.2 [1.02-1.4]), and type 2 diabetes (OR 1.4 [1.1-1.7]) were significant risk factors. A risk score was generated. Patients with a score of 8 had a 5-fold increase in event rate as compared with those with a score of 0. The c-statistic for this model was 0.65. Conclusions: For the first time, a weighted risk score GIMVECH (female gender, ischemic time, mechanical ventilation, left ventricular assist device support, ethnicity, clinical history) was generated to assess stroke in the early post-transplant period.