TY - JOUR
T1 - A simple, physically motivated model of sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes
AU - Bakker, Alexander M.R.
AU - Applegate, Patrick J.
AU - Keller, Klaus
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) under NSF cooperative agreement GEO-1240507 and the Penn State center for Climate Risk Management.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
PY - 2016/9/1
Y1 - 2016/9/1
N2 - Sea level could rise by several meters over the next centuries. The Greenland ice sheet could be an important contributor to future sea-level rise, because of its large volume and its high sensitivity to surface air temperature increases. Frameworks for the integrated climate risk management often require fast, simplified treatments of sea-level rise, in particular for estimating the risks associated with low probabilities but potentially high impacts. State-of-the-art ice sheet models provide important insights, but are often computationally too demanding to evaluate tail-area risks. Here we present SIMPLE, a physically motivated model of the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes. SIMPLE can skillfully reproduce the results from a three-dimensional ice sheet model and outperforms existing simple models, after similar calibration. We anticipate that SIMPLE will be calibrated to other ice sheet models and can provide a fast approximation (emulator) for such models in studies that require many model evaluations.
AB - Sea level could rise by several meters over the next centuries. The Greenland ice sheet could be an important contributor to future sea-level rise, because of its large volume and its high sensitivity to surface air temperature increases. Frameworks for the integrated climate risk management often require fast, simplified treatments of sea-level rise, in particular for estimating the risks associated with low probabilities but potentially high impacts. State-of-the-art ice sheet models provide important insights, but are often computationally too demanding to evaluate tail-area risks. Here we present SIMPLE, a physically motivated model of the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes. SIMPLE can skillfully reproduce the results from a three-dimensional ice sheet model and outperforms existing simple models, after similar calibration. We anticipate that SIMPLE will be calibrated to other ice sheet models and can provide a fast approximation (emulator) for such models in studies that require many model evaluations.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.003
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.003
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84967332969
SN - 1364-8152
VL - 83
SP - 27
EP - 35
JO - Environmental Modelling and Software
JF - Environmental Modelling and Software
ER -