A study of measuring influence of advertising and forecasting cigarette sales

This study investigated the effect of advertising on cigarette sales, particularly after 1967. Data were collected using sources of the Statistical abstract of the U.S., the Historical Statistics of the U.S. and Vital Statistics between 1955 and 1979. A multiple regression model was used to analyze the data. Cigarette consumption was used as a dependent variable. Disposable Income, Death Rate due to cancer of the respiratory system/total cancer death, advertising outlays for cigarettes: Newspapers and television advertisement/total advertising cost, cigarette‐production (including long and regular sizes), sales outlets, loyalty/total loyalty, average price for cigarettes and a dummy variable were used as independent variables. Analysis revealed that there is a significant negative relationship between cigarette‐consumption and total cancer death and average prices on the one hand, and a significant positive association between loyalty and cigarette consumption on the other. Although advertising expenditures are not statistically significant, increased spending on advertising has an increasing effect on cigarette‐consumption.