TY - JOUR
T1 - A Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk Assessment Contingency Table for Severe Sepsis∗
AU - Carcillo, Joseph A.
AU - Sward, Katherine
AU - Halstead, E. Scott
AU - Telford, Russell
AU - Jimenez-Bacardi, Adria
AU - Shakoory, Bita
AU - Simon, Dennis
AU - Hall, Mark
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was also supported, in part, by the following cooperative agreements from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services: U10HD049983, U10HD050096, U10HD049981, U10HD063108, U10HD063106, U10HD063114, U10HD050012, and U01HD049934
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 by the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the World Federation of Pediatric Intensive and Critical Care Societies.
PY - 2017/2/1
Y1 - 2017/2/1
N2 - Objectives: We tested the hypothesis that a C-reactive protein and ferritin-based systemic inflammation contingency table can track mortality risk in pediatric severe sepsis. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary PICU. Patients: Children with 100 separate admission episodes of severe sepsis were enrolled. Interventions: Blood samples were attained on day 2 of sepsis and bi-weekly for biomarker batch analysis. A 2 × 2 contingency table using C-reactive protein and ferritin thresholds was developed. Measurements and Main Results: A C-reactive protein of 4.08 mg/dL and a ferritin of 1,980 ng/mL were found to be optimal cutoffs for outcome prediction at first sampling (n = 100) using the Youden index. PICU mortality was increased in the "high-risk" C-reactive protein greater than or equal to 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin greater than or equal to 1,980 ng/mL category (6/13 [46.15%]) compared with the "intermediate-risk" C-reactive protein greater than or equal to 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin less than 1,980 ng/mL or C-reactive protein less than 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin greater than or equal to 1,980 ng/mL categories (2/43 [4.65%]), and the "low-risk" C-reactive protein less than 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin less than 1,980 ng/mL category (0/44 [0%]) (odds ratio, 36.43 [95% CI, 6.16-215.21]). The high-risk category was also associated with the development of immunoparalysis (odds ratio, 4.47 [95% CI, 1.34-14.96]) and macrophage activation syndrome (odds ratio, 24.20 [95% CI, 5.50-106.54]). Sixty-three children underwent sequential blood sampling; those who were initially in the low-risk category (n = 24) and those who subsequently migrated (n = 19) to the low-risk category all survived, whereas those who remained in the "at-risk" categories had increased mortality (7/20 [35%]; p < 0.05). Conclusions: A C-reactive protein-and ferritin-based contingency table effectively assessed mortality risk. Reduction in systemic inflammation below a combined threshold C-reactive protein of 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin of 1,980 ng/mL appeared to be a desired response in children with severe sepsis.
AB - Objectives: We tested the hypothesis that a C-reactive protein and ferritin-based systemic inflammation contingency table can track mortality risk in pediatric severe sepsis. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary PICU. Patients: Children with 100 separate admission episodes of severe sepsis were enrolled. Interventions: Blood samples were attained on day 2 of sepsis and bi-weekly for biomarker batch analysis. A 2 × 2 contingency table using C-reactive protein and ferritin thresholds was developed. Measurements and Main Results: A C-reactive protein of 4.08 mg/dL and a ferritin of 1,980 ng/mL were found to be optimal cutoffs for outcome prediction at first sampling (n = 100) using the Youden index. PICU mortality was increased in the "high-risk" C-reactive protein greater than or equal to 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin greater than or equal to 1,980 ng/mL category (6/13 [46.15%]) compared with the "intermediate-risk" C-reactive protein greater than or equal to 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin less than 1,980 ng/mL or C-reactive protein less than 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin greater than or equal to 1,980 ng/mL categories (2/43 [4.65%]), and the "low-risk" C-reactive protein less than 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin less than 1,980 ng/mL category (0/44 [0%]) (odds ratio, 36.43 [95% CI, 6.16-215.21]). The high-risk category was also associated with the development of immunoparalysis (odds ratio, 4.47 [95% CI, 1.34-14.96]) and macrophage activation syndrome (odds ratio, 24.20 [95% CI, 5.50-106.54]). Sixty-three children underwent sequential blood sampling; those who were initially in the low-risk category (n = 24) and those who subsequently migrated (n = 19) to the low-risk category all survived, whereas those who remained in the "at-risk" categories had increased mortality (7/20 [35%]; p < 0.05). Conclusions: A C-reactive protein-and ferritin-based contingency table effectively assessed mortality risk. Reduction in systemic inflammation below a combined threshold C-reactive protein of 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin of 1,980 ng/mL appeared to be a desired response in children with severe sepsis.
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U2 - 10.1097/PCC.0000000000001029
DO - 10.1097/PCC.0000000000001029
M3 - Article
C2 - 27941423
AN - SCOPUS:85003875704
SN - 1529-7535
VL - 18
SP - 143
EP - 150
JO - Pediatric Critical Care Medicine
JF - Pediatric Critical Care Medicine
IS - 2
ER -