A troubleshooting guide for mechanistic plant pest forecast models

Roger D. Magarey, Scott A. Isard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

18 Scopus citations


There is copious literature on development and validation of models to forecast risk to crops from arthropods and diseases; however, there is little published on causes of failure associated with these models. This manuscript provides mechanistic model builders and users with a list of likely problems, potential causes, possible solutions, and associated references. The problems are divided into four categories: environmental inputs, model construction and parameterization, validation, and implementation. The list is based on the authors' extensive experiences developing and running mechanistic modeling systems. A multidisciplinary approach involving researchers with expertise in pest biology, crop management, meteorology, and information technology is recommended for delivering the most effective pest forecast models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3
Number of pages1
JournalJournal of Integrated Pest Management
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Plant Science
  • Insect Science
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


Dive into the research topics of 'A troubleshooting guide for mechanistic plant pest forecast models'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this