Age 19-30 Union Formation Trajectories Across the Past 30 Years Within the U.S. Delineating Heterogeneity in Trajectories and its Historical and Sociodemographic Variation

Using data from Monitoring the Future Study that include 31 cohorts of high school seniors (1976 to 2006) who were followed from ages 19–30, we identified heterogeneity in union formation trajectories and its covariates (cohort, sex, race/ethnicity, and parental education). We identified nine trajectories with approximately 40% following a single to married sequence (with variation in the timing of the sequence), about 35% remaining single, and the remaining respondents showing considerable heterogeneity. Recent cohorts were more likely to remain single and experience more transitions, women made earlier transitions, and Black respondents were less likely to follow pathways entailing marriage.