An introduction to the methodology, the region of study, and a historical analog of climate change

We introduce a methodology for simulating the impact of climate change induced by greenhouse warming and the direct effects of the rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration on agricultural productivity and for considering the farm-level response to these impacts. The methodology permits the climate change-agriculture question to be viewed in terms of future changes and provides for systematic consideration of the role of adaptation. The methodology has been applied to the four-state Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region-a region whose economy is heavily based on natural resources likely to be affected by climate change. In this first application the weather records of the Dust Bowl Era (1931-1940) were used as the basis for a scenario of climate change. That decade was warmer and drier than the current climatic normal in the MINK region. However, the methodology is not dependent specifically on climate analogs for scenario building; general circulation model experiments or other appropriate surrogates can be used, as well. The general structure of the methodology is described in this paper; details are given in the five subsequent papers.