Analytical prediction of self-organized traffic jams as a function of increasing ACC penetration

Self-organizing traffic jams are known to occur in medium-to-high density traffic flows, and it is suspected that adaptive cruise control (ACC) may affect their onset in mixed human-ACC traffic. Unfortunately, closed-form solutions that predict the occurrence of these jams in mixed human-ACC traffic do not exist. In this paper, both human and ACC driving behaviors are modeled using the General Motors fourth car-following model and are distinguished by using different model parameter values. A closed-form solution that explains the impact of ACC on congestion due to the formation of self-organized traffic jams (or phantom jams) is presented. The solution approach utilizes the master equation for modeling the self-organizing behavior of traffic flow at a mesoscopic scale and the General Motors fourth car-following model for describing the driver behavior at the microscopic scale. It is found that, although the introduction of ACC-enabled vehicles into the traffic stream may produce higher traffic flows, it also results in disproportionately higher susceptibility of the traffic flow to congestion.