ANALYZING EXPERT DESIGN COST ESTIMATION FOR ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING

Compared to conventional fabrication, additive manufacturing enables production of far more complex geometries with less tooling and increased automation. However, despite the common perception of AM’s “free” geometric complexity, this freedom comes with a literal cost: more complex geometries may be challenging to design, potentially manifesting as increased engineering labor cost. Being able to accurately predict design cost is essential to reliably forecasting large-scale design for additive manufacturing projects, especially for those using expensive processes like laser powder bed fusion of metals. However, no studies have quantitatively explored designers’ ability to complete this forecasting. In this study, we address this gap by analyzing the uncertainty of expert design cost estimation. First, we establish a methodology to translate computer-aided design data into descriptive vectors capturing design for additive manufacturing activity parameters. We then present a series of case study designs, with varied functionality and geometric complexity, to experts and measure their estimations of design labor for each case. Summary statistics of the cost estimates and a linear mixed effects model predicting labor responses from participant and design attributes was used to estimate the significance of factors on the responses. A task-based, CAD model complexity calculation is then used to infer an estimate of the magnitude and variability of normalized labor cost to understand more generalizable attributes of the observed labor estimates. These two analyses are discussed in the context of advantages and disadvantages of relying on human cost estimation for additive manufacturing forecasts as well as future work that can prioritize and mitigate such challenges.