Anticipated post-pandemic substitution behavior among new outdoor recreationists in the U.S. analysis across involvement and activity clusters

Purpose: While much research has examined the increase in outdoor recreation and those who began participating in outdoor recreation during the COVID-19 pandemic, to-date no published empirical research has examined perceived post-pandemic recreation participation among the latter group. Research Methods: Through a national panel survey of 902 respondents, we examine differences in perceived post-pandemic substitution behaviors across activity- and involvement-based clusters of new or returning outdoor recreationists using a two-part cluster analysis followed by analyses of variance. Results and Findings: Results suggest significant differences exist across activity- and involvement-based clusters. On average, this research suggests that Runners, Purist Gardeners, General Recreationists, and Casual Recreationists are less likely than High Intensity Recreationists and Hunters & Anglers to abandon outdoor recreation after the pandemic. Implications: Implications are provided for both the continued development of substitutability theory and outdoor recreation managers as they adapt toward a post-pandemic future. Specifically, managerial implications concerning the demand for activity-specific facilities and leisure abandonment are provided. Research Contribution: These results provide new knowledge concerning how outdoor recreation participation among new participants may change in a post-pandemic future, and how involvement relates to substitution more broadly.