Application of Bass Diffusion Theory to Simulate the Impact of Feedback and Word of Mouth on Occupants' Behavior in Commercial Buildings: An Agent-Based Approach

In their assumption of a static nature for occupants' energy-use characteristics, the conventional energy-simulation tools have failed to bring about a reliable prediction regarding changes in occupants' behavior and the resulting impact on energy consumption. Thus, this study investigated an agent-based approach to simulating the diffusion of energy-saving policies among the occupants and the related impact on energy consumption and emission production of commercial buildings. Two different strategies were implemented in the agent-based environment to track the changes in occupants' behavioral patterns and the consequential energy conservation by providing informational feedback to the occupants. Compared to the results obtained from energy-simulation software, the first model showed a 13% variation/reduction in building energy consumption from Year 1 to Year 3; the second model, inspired by Bass diffusion theory, showed 20% variation/reduction in the same period. The results indicate that the adoption of energy-saving policies or positive changes in occupants' behavioral patterns of energy use may follow Bass diffusion theory in simulation of product adoption. Also, the results of both agent-based models show that there is considerable potential in energy preservation and emission reduction by providing feedback to the occupants. However, the resulting word-of-mouth effect among the occupants had a stronger influence on persuading the occupants to save energy.