TY - JOUR
T1 - Applying the NWS’s Distributed Hydrologic Model to Short-Range Forecasting of Quickflow in the Mahantango Creek Watershed
AU - Buda, Anthony R.
AU - Reed, Seann M.
AU - Folmar, Gordon J.
AU - Kennedy, Casey D.
AU - Millar, David J.
AU - Kleinman, Peter J.A.
AU - Miller, Douglas A.
AU - Drohan, Patrick J.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 American Meteorological Society.
PY - 2022/8
Y1 - 2022/8
N2 - Accurate and reliable forecasts of quickflow, including interflow and overland flow, are essential for pre-dicting rainfall–runoff events that can wash off recently applied agricultural nutrients. In this study, we examined whether a gridded version of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model with Heat Transfer (SAC-HT) could simulate and forecast quickflow in two agricultural watersheds in east-central Pennsylvania. Specifically, we used the Hydrology Laboratory– Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) software, which incorporates SAC-HT, to conduct a 15-yr (2003–17) simulation of quickflow in the 420-km2 Mahantango Creek watershed and in WE-38, a 7.3-km2 headwater interior basin. We directly calibrated HL-RDHM using hydrologic observations at the Mahantango Creek outlet, while all grid cells within Mahantango Creek, including WE-38, were calibrated indirectly using scalar multipliers derived from the basin outlet calibration. Using the calibrated model, we then assessed the quality of short-range (24–72 h) deterministic forecasts of daily quickflow in both watersheds over a 2-yr period (July 2017–October 2019). At the basin outlet, HL-RDHM quickflow simulations showed low biases (PBIAS = 10.5%) and strong agreement (KGE′′ = 0.81) with observations. At the headwa-ter scale, HL-RDHM overestimated quickflow (PBIAS = 69.0%) to a greater degree, but quickflow simulations remained satisfactory (KGE′′ = 0.65). When applied to quickflow forecasting, HL-RDHM produced skillful forecasts (>90% of Peirce and Gerrity skill scores above 0.5) at all lead times and significantly outperformed persistence forecasts, although skill gains in Mahantango Creek were slightly lower. Accordingly, short-range quickflow forecasts by HL-RDHM show promise for informing operational decision-making in agriculture.
AB - Accurate and reliable forecasts of quickflow, including interflow and overland flow, are essential for pre-dicting rainfall–runoff events that can wash off recently applied agricultural nutrients. In this study, we examined whether a gridded version of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model with Heat Transfer (SAC-HT) could simulate and forecast quickflow in two agricultural watersheds in east-central Pennsylvania. Specifically, we used the Hydrology Laboratory– Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) software, which incorporates SAC-HT, to conduct a 15-yr (2003–17) simulation of quickflow in the 420-km2 Mahantango Creek watershed and in WE-38, a 7.3-km2 headwater interior basin. We directly calibrated HL-RDHM using hydrologic observations at the Mahantango Creek outlet, while all grid cells within Mahantango Creek, including WE-38, were calibrated indirectly using scalar multipliers derived from the basin outlet calibration. Using the calibrated model, we then assessed the quality of short-range (24–72 h) deterministic forecasts of daily quickflow in both watersheds over a 2-yr period (July 2017–October 2019). At the basin outlet, HL-RDHM quickflow simulations showed low biases (PBIAS = 10.5%) and strong agreement (KGE′′ = 0.81) with observations. At the headwa-ter scale, HL-RDHM overestimated quickflow (PBIAS = 69.0%) to a greater degree, but quickflow simulations remained satisfactory (KGE′′ = 0.65). When applied to quickflow forecasting, HL-RDHM produced skillful forecasts (>90% of Peirce and Gerrity skill scores above 0.5) at all lead times and significantly outperformed persistence forecasts, although skill gains in Mahantango Creek were slightly lower. Accordingly, short-range quickflow forecasts by HL-RDHM show promise for informing operational decision-making in agriculture.
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U2 - 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0189.1
DO - 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0189.1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85136182909
SN - 1525-755X
VL - 23
SP - 1257
EP - 1280
JO - Journal of Hydrometeorology
JF - Journal of Hydrometeorology
IS - 8
ER -