TY - JOUR
T1 - Arctic amplification
T2 - Can the past constrain the future?
AU - Miller, Gifford H.
AU - Alley, Richard B.
AU - Brigham-Grette, Julie
AU - Fitzpatrick, Joan J.
AU - Polyak, Leonid
AU - Serreze, Mark C.
AU - White, James W.C.
N1 - Funding Information:
We express our appreciation to the Earth Surface Processes Team of the U.S. Geological Survey in Denver for assistance in ms preparation. GHM acknowledges partial support from the US National Science Foundation under grants ARC 0714074 and ATM-0318479 . RBA acknowledges partial support from the US National Science Foundation under grants 0531211 and 0424589 . JWCW acknowledges partial support from National Science Foundation under grants 0806387, 0537593 and 0519512 . LP acknowledges partial support from the US National Science Foundation under grants ARC-0612473 and ARC-0806999 ; MCS acknowledges partial support from the US National Science Foundation under grants ARC-0531040, ARC-0531302 .
PY - 2010/7
Y1 - 2010/7
N2 - Arctic amplification, the observation that surface air temperature changes in the Arctic exceed those of the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, is a pervasive feature of climate models, and has recently emerged in observational data relative to the warming trend of the past century. The magnitude of Arctic amplification is an important, but poorly constrained variable necessary to estimate global average temperature change over the next century. Here we evaluate the mechanisms responsible for Arctic amplification on Quaternary timescales, and review evidence from four intervals in the past 3 Ma for which sufficient paleoclimate data and model simulations are available to estimate the magnitude of Arctic amplification under climate states both warmer and colder than present. Despite differences in forcings and feedbacks for these reconstructions compared to today, the Arctic temperature change consistently exceeds the Northern Hemisphere average by a factor of 3-4, suggesting that Arctic warming will continue to greatly exceed the global average over the coming century, with concomitant reductions in terrestrial ice masses and, consequently, an increasing rate of sea level rise.
AB - Arctic amplification, the observation that surface air temperature changes in the Arctic exceed those of the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, is a pervasive feature of climate models, and has recently emerged in observational data relative to the warming trend of the past century. The magnitude of Arctic amplification is an important, but poorly constrained variable necessary to estimate global average temperature change over the next century. Here we evaluate the mechanisms responsible for Arctic amplification on Quaternary timescales, and review evidence from four intervals in the past 3 Ma for which sufficient paleoclimate data and model simulations are available to estimate the magnitude of Arctic amplification under climate states both warmer and colder than present. Despite differences in forcings and feedbacks for these reconstructions compared to today, the Arctic temperature change consistently exceeds the Northern Hemisphere average by a factor of 3-4, suggesting that Arctic warming will continue to greatly exceed the global average over the coming century, with concomitant reductions in terrestrial ice masses and, consequently, an increasing rate of sea level rise.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.008
DO - 10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.008
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:77954819474
SN - 0277-3791
VL - 29
SP - 1779
EP - 1790
JO - Quaternary Science Reviews
JF - Quaternary Science Reviews
IS - 15-16
ER -