Aridity Drives Streamflow, Network Connectivity and Climate Change Impacts in Non-Perennial Stream Networks

Non-perennial streams are globally prevalent. These streams are vital components of ecosystems, yet their drying patterns and resulting impacts on hydrologic connectivity remain poorly understood at the watershed scale. Aridity is a dominant driver of stream drying, but its influences on hydrologic connectivity have not been fully explored. In this study, we investigated the role of aridity in shaping streamflow and connectivity patterns in non-perennial stream networks that span the continental United States aridity gradient. Using hydrologic models, we simulated daily streamflow and stream network connectivity under current and future climate scenarios. Our findings support previous research showing that aridity and streamflow are strongly linked. We also found that connectivity was related to aridity, although this relationship was weaker. Under the future climate scenario, mean runoff increased in most watersheds in the future, while mean connectivity decreased in the majority of watersheds. This difference is an indicator of the complex relationship between streamflow and connectivity. Aridity was a strong predictor of changes in very high and very low connectivity periods that resulted from climate change, but aridity did not predict changes in mean connectivity. Arid watersheds tended to experience more high connectivity days due to climate change while humid networks tended to have more low connectivity days. By modelling climate impacts at the network scale and across a broad hydroclimatic gradient, we highlight the importance of considering context-dependent changes in network connectivity in river flow management and watershed conservation plans.