Arrests and the Opioid Epidemic: An Investigation into the Spatial and Social Network Spillover of Opioid Overdoses in Chicago

Objectives: This study investigates the role of criminal justice intervention practices, i.e., opioid arrests, in effectively preventing or increasing opioid overdoses, paying particular attention to whether arrests in spatially proximate or socially connected communities lead to the displacement or prevention of opioid overdoses in a local community. Methods: Combining data from the Cook County medical examiner, emergency medical services information, arrest reports, and commuting network statistics for Chicago’s 77 community areas between 2016 and 2019, this study uses fixed effects spatial autoregressive models with spatial lags to explain community-level opioid overdose rates. Results: We find evidence for the diffusion and displacement of overdose risk as well as the diffusion of overdose-reducing benefits. Findings suggest complex spatial and social spillover mechanisms that both diffuse and prevent opioid overdoses, dependent on the type of opioid-related crime and overdose rate investigated. Conclusions: These results have important implications for understanding the effectiveness of criminal justice policies in their goal of preventing opioid-related crime and overdoses and provide insights for designing more appropriate and effective policy responses to address substance use and illicit drug markets.