TY - GEN
T1 - Assessing the probability of occurrence of earthquake-induced landslides offshore the U.S. East Coast
T2 - GeoRisk 2011: Geotechnical Risk Assessment and Management
AU - Morgan, Eugene C.
AU - Baise, Laurie G.
PY - 2011/8/25
Y1 - 2011/8/25
N2 - Submarine landslides pose a direct threat to offshore infrastructure, and an indirect threat to coastal communities via tsunami generation. Recent studies have investigated the potential role that submarine landslides play in causing tsunamis on the U.S. East Coast. This paper quantitatively assesses submarine landslide hazard offshore Long Island and New Jersey, as an example, but the method herein can be applied to the entire Atlantic margin. Using publicly available bathymetry, surficial sediment data, undrained shear strength values, and earthquake ground motion predictions, we map the conditional probability of slope failure over our entire study area. We calculate this probability using a first-order, second moment estimate of the variance of critical acceleration needed to overcome the resisting forces in the infinite slope stability analysis. We show that this first-order, second moment approximation serves as a convenient and computationally efficient way of assessing submarine landslide hazard over a broad region, while also accounting for the significant uncertainties in the slope stability parameters.
AB - Submarine landslides pose a direct threat to offshore infrastructure, and an indirect threat to coastal communities via tsunami generation. Recent studies have investigated the potential role that submarine landslides play in causing tsunamis on the U.S. East Coast. This paper quantitatively assesses submarine landslide hazard offshore Long Island and New Jersey, as an example, but the method herein can be applied to the entire Atlantic margin. Using publicly available bathymetry, surficial sediment data, undrained shear strength values, and earthquake ground motion predictions, we map the conditional probability of slope failure over our entire study area. We calculate this probability using a first-order, second moment estimate of the variance of critical acceleration needed to overcome the resisting forces in the infinite slope stability analysis. We show that this first-order, second moment approximation serves as a convenient and computationally efficient way of assessing submarine landslide hazard over a broad region, while also accounting for the significant uncertainties in the slope stability parameters.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80051914545&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=80051914545&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1061/41183(418)109
DO - 10.1061/41183(418)109
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:80051914545
SN - 9780784411834
T3 - Geotechnical Special Publication
SP - 1004
EP - 1011
BT - GeoRisk 2011
Y2 - 26 June 2011 through 28 June 2011
ER -