Bridging multi-level vehicle behavioural patterns with long-term pavement condition: a bidirectional modelling approach for progressively mixed autonomous traffic flow

The increasing of AVs’ market penetration rate (MPR) changes the traffic behavioural pattern and ultimately influences pavement. Pavement condition, in turn, influences microscopic behaviours. The above bidirection influencing mechanism has not been investigated fully yet. This research fill this gap by modelling the linkage between multi-level microscopic behaviour and pavement sustainability. Three levels of behaviour are considered: travel behaviour, microscopic traffic behaviour, and driving behaviour. The latter two are modelled using stochastic lateral movement model, while the former one is captured by a mixed autonomous traffic assignment model. Microscopic behaviours’ influence on pavement is described by a data-driven model, while the reverse counterpart is described by connecting pavement condition with link wandering and disutility. Our analysis results reveal that at link level, AVs can cause extra 50% drop in free flow speed due to pavement deterioration. Neglecting pavement evolution in strategic assignments leads to a 0.2% increase in network cost.