TY - CHAP

T1 - Chapter 1 Bayesian Forecasting

AU - Geweke, John

AU - Whiteman, Charles H.

PY - 2006/12/1

Y1 - 2006/12/1

N2 - Bayesian forecasting is a natural product of a Bayesian approach to inference. The Bayesian approach in general requires explicit formulation of a model, and conditioning on known quantities, in order to draw inferences about unknown ones. In Bayesian forecasting, one simply takes a subset of the unknown quantities to be future values of some variables of interest. This chapter presents the principles of Bayesian forecasting, and describes recent advances in computational capabilities for applying them that have dramatically expanded the scope of applicability of the Bayesian approach. It describes historical developments and the analytic compromises that were necessary prior to recent developments, the application of the new procedures in a variety of examples, and reports on two long-term Bayesian forecasting exercises.

AB - Bayesian forecasting is a natural product of a Bayesian approach to inference. The Bayesian approach in general requires explicit formulation of a model, and conditioning on known quantities, in order to draw inferences about unknown ones. In Bayesian forecasting, one simply takes a subset of the unknown quantities to be future values of some variables of interest. This chapter presents the principles of Bayesian forecasting, and describes recent advances in computational capabilities for applying them that have dramatically expanded the scope of applicability of the Bayesian approach. It describes historical developments and the analytic compromises that were necessary prior to recent developments, the application of the new procedures in a variety of examples, and reports on two long-term Bayesian forecasting exercises.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=67649336765&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=67649336765&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S1574-0706(05)01001-3

DO - 10.1016/S1574-0706(05)01001-3

M3 - Chapter

AN - SCOPUS:67649336765

SN - 9780444513953

T3 - Handbook of Economic Forecasting

SP - 3

EP - 80

BT - Handbook of Economic Forecasting

A2 - Elliott, G.

A2 - Granger, C.W.J.

A2 - Timmermann, Granger

ER -