Climate change and plant biosecurity: Implications for policy

Projected future climates, such as increasing temperature, increasing atmospheric CO₂, altered precipitation patterns and increases in the frequency of climatic extremes, are likely to alter the performance and distribution of crops as well as influence the entry, establishment and spread of invasive weeds, pests and pathogens that affect them. Climate change will require a revision of current biosecurity practices, such as preparedness, prevention, containment policies, surveillance response, incursion management and trade and market access issues. This chapter provides a comprehensive review of the climate change events affecting the biology and distribution of species that represent a biosecurity threat to agricultural and forestry production. Using two case studies, the Asiatic Citrus Psyllid (Diaphorina citriSKuwayama) and Asian Soybean Rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi Sydow and P. Sydow), we explore ways that climate change will affect invasive species and how biosecurity agencies can use information to minimise the spread of invasive weeds, pests and pathogens. Armed with knowledge of the likely effects of climate change on the biology of organisms and their geographical distribution, we examine the implications to existing biosecurity policy. We recommend that future research focus on: (1) Improvement to atmospheric transport models of species due to major storm events; (2) Identification and prioritization of new and existing pest threats; (3) Identification and documentation of pest status changes and potential new interactions; (4) Development of guidelines for incorporating climate change into pest risk analysis and other policy guidelines and (5) Incorporation of future climate scenarios into currently deployed operational pest models.