Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

Barbara Entwisle; Nathalie E. Williams; Ashton M. Verdery; Ronald R. Rindfuss; Stephen J. Walsh; George P. Malanson; Peter J. Mucha; Brian G. Frizzelle; Philip M. McDaniel; Xiaozheng Yao; Benjamin W. Heumann; Pramote Prasartkul; Yothin Sawangdee; Aree Jampaklay

doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

Barbara Entwisle, Nathalie E. Williams, Ashton M. Verdery, Ronald R. Rindfuss, Stephen J. Walsh, George P. Malanson, Peter J. Mucha, Brian G. Frizzelle, Philip M. McDaniel, Xiaozheng Yao, Benjamin W. Heumann, Pramote Prasartkul, Yothin Sawangdee, Aree Jampaklay

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Abstract

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	47-71
Number of pages	25
Journal	Population and Environment
Volume	38
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y
State	Published - Sep 1 2016

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Demography
Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

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Entwisle, B., Williams, N. E., Verdery, A. M., Rindfuss, R. R., Walsh, S. J., Malanson, G. P., Mucha, P. J., Frizzelle, B. G., McDaniel, P. M., Yao, X., Heumann, B. W., Prasartkul, P., Sawangdee, Y., & Jampaklay, A. (2016). Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach. Population and Environment, 38(1), 47-71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

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title = "Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach",

abstract = "This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.",

author = "Barbara Entwisle and Williams, {Nathalie E.} and Verdery, {Ashton M.} and Rindfuss, {Ronald R.} and Walsh, {Stephen J.} and Malanson, {George P.} and Mucha, {Peter J.} and Frizzelle, {Brian G.} and McDaniel, {Philip M.} and Xiaozheng Yao and Heumann, {Benjamin W.} and Pramote Prasartkul and Yothin Sawangdee and Aree Jampaklay",

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doi = "10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y",

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T2 - an agent-based modeling approach

AU - Entwisle, Barbara

AU - Williams, Nathalie E.

AU - Verdery, Ashton M.

AU - Rindfuss, Ronald R.

AU - Walsh, Stephen J.

AU - Malanson, George P.

AU - Mucha, Peter J.

AU - Frizzelle, Brian G.

AU - McDaniel, Philip M.

AU - Yao, Xiaozheng

AU - Heumann, Benjamin W.

AU - Prasartkul, Pramote

AU - Sawangdee, Yothin

AU - Jampaklay, Aree

PY - 2016/9/1

Y1 - 2016/9/1

N2 - This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

AB - This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

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Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

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