Component obsolescence risk assessment

Custom low volume products and systems, such as those utilized by military and avionics applications; often make use of commercial high-tech components. In the past decade, technology has advanced very rapidly causing such components to have a shortened life span. Newer and better technologies are being introduced frequently, rendering components obsolete. Yet, custom low volume products and systems such as ships, submarines and aircraft can be in use for decades. Being proactive about obsolescence is critical to maintaining fully capable products and systems and satisfied customers. This paper presents an obsolescence risk measurement tool that is being developed to better predict and manage component obsolescence. Critical variables in this assessment that are precursors to a component becoming obsolete are described. A multiple regression model developed for forecasting obsolescence is presented. An industrial case study with Kollmorgen, an international manufacturer of motion control systems, is also presented.