Conjugate unscented transformation-based approach for accurate conjunction analysis

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the probability of conjunction between two space objects when probability density functions for orbital state vector are significantly non-Gaussian in nature. The proposed method makes use of the recently developed conjugate unscented transformation method in conjunction with the principle of maximum entropy to estimate the probability of collision between two space objects. The conjugate unscented transformation points are used to efficiently propagate statistical moments corresponding to orbital state for each object, which are then used to reconstruct the miss-distance probability density function by the principle of maximum entropy. This miss-distance probability density function is then integrated over the required region to yield the accurate conjunction probability. Numerical experiments are illustrated to show the efficacy of the proposed method.