TY - GEN
T1 - Cost prediction model of commercial aircraft based on grey incidence weight
AU - Cao, Ying
AU - Liu, Sifeng
AU - Xie, Naiming
AU - Fang, Zhigeng
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - This study concentrates on the cost prediction of commercial aircraft which is a crucial factor influencing its research and manufacturing. To tackle the situation that the cost-related information is difficult to get in the designing stage, a cost prediction and simulation model of commercial aircraft called GI-GM(0,N) is constructed based on grey incidence weight. A host of cost values of aircraft related parameters are predicted, and the weight of each cost value is calculated according to their comprehensive grey incidence with the cost, then their weighted summation is calculated as the comprehensive cost of the aircraft. Compared with traditional multi-factor grey prediction models, GI-GM(0,N) model avoids the forecast precision decreasing caused by multi-collinearity during the multiple linear regression based on 1-AGO sequences. In a case study, the cost of a commercial aircraft, short for X jet, is forecasted by GI-GM(0,N). The simulation results confirm a satisfactory forecast result of X jet and reveal that this model is an effective way to predict cost of commercial aircraft. It is expected that GI-GM(0,N) can be applied as an ideal method in simulation and forecast with cross-sectional data in small-sample.
AB - This study concentrates on the cost prediction of commercial aircraft which is a crucial factor influencing its research and manufacturing. To tackle the situation that the cost-related information is difficult to get in the designing stage, a cost prediction and simulation model of commercial aircraft called GI-GM(0,N) is constructed based on grey incidence weight. A host of cost values of aircraft related parameters are predicted, and the weight of each cost value is calculated according to their comprehensive grey incidence with the cost, then their weighted summation is calculated as the comprehensive cost of the aircraft. Compared with traditional multi-factor grey prediction models, GI-GM(0,N) model avoids the forecast precision decreasing caused by multi-collinearity during the multiple linear regression based on 1-AGO sequences. In a case study, the cost of a commercial aircraft, short for X jet, is forecasted by GI-GM(0,N). The simulation results confirm a satisfactory forecast result of X jet and reveal that this model is an effective way to predict cost of commercial aircraft. It is expected that GI-GM(0,N) can be applied as an ideal method in simulation and forecast with cross-sectional data in small-sample.
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U2 - 10.1109/GSIS.2011.6044010
DO - 10.1109/GSIS.2011.6044010
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:80155163376
SN - 9781612844886
T3 - Proceedings of 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11 - Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems
SP - 116
EP - 120
BT - Proceedings of 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11 - Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems
T2 - Joint Conference of the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems and 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11
Y2 - 15 September 2011 through 18 September 2011
ER -