Critical event prediction for proactive management in large-scale computer clusters

As the complexity of distributed computing systems increases, systems management tasks require significantly higher levels of automation; examples include diagnosis and prediction based on real-time streams of computer events, setting alarms, and performing continuous monitoring. The core of autonomic computing, a recently proposed initiative towards next-generation IT-systems capable of 'self-healing', is the ability to analyze data in real-time and to predict potential problems. The goal is to avoid catastrophic failures through prompt execution of remedial actions.This paper describes an attempt to build a proactive prediction and control system for large clusters. We collected event logs containing various system reliability, availability and serviceability (RAS) events, and system activity reports (SARs) from a 350-node cluster system for a period of one year. The 'raw' system health measurements contain a great deal of redundant event data, which is either repetitive in nature or misaligned with respect to time. We applied a filtering technique and modeled the data into a set of primary and derived variables. These variables used probabilistic networks for establishing event correlations through prediction algorithms. We also evaluated the role of time-series methods, rule-based classification algorithms and Bayesian network models in event prediction.Based on historical data, our results suggest that it is feasible to predict system performance parameters (SARs) with a high degree of accuracy using time-series models. Rule-based classification techniques can be used to extract machine-event signatures to predict critical events with up to 70% accuracy.