TY - JOUR
T1 - Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections
T2 - A Case Study for New Orleans
AU - Wong, Tony E.
AU - Keller, Klaus
N1 - Funding Information:
We gratefully acknowledge Greg Gar ner, Robert Fuller, Kelsey Ruckert, Ben jamin Lee, Vivek Srikrishnan, Alexan der Bakker, Rob Lempert, David John son, and Neil Berg, as well as Bella and Chris Forest for invaluable inputs. This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) under NSF cooperative agreement GEO-1240507 as well as the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management. The authors are not aware of any real or perceived conflicts of interest. Any conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding agencies. Any errors and opinions are, of course, those of the authors. All model codes, analysis codes, data, and model output used for analysis are freely available at https:// github.com/scrim-network/BRICK/tree/ scenarios. TW and KK initiated the study and designed the research. TW produced the model simulations, designed the initial figures, and wrote the first draft. Both contributed to the final text and figures.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 The Authors.
PY - 2017/10
Y1 - 2017/10
N2 - Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.
AB - Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.
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U2 - 10.1002/2017EF000607
DO - 10.1002/2017EF000607
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85031129103
SN - 2328-4277
VL - 5
SP - 1015
EP - 1026
JO - Earth's Future
JF - Earth's Future
IS - 10
ER -