Dependent markov models for long-term structural fragility

C. P. Andriotis, K. G. Papakonstantinou

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Scopus citations


Risk assessment in earthquake engineering necessitates effective predictive models for structural damage evolution, compatible with current decision support frameworks. Such models should be able to handle stochastic seismic excitations and responses, probabilistically associating earthquake features to structural damage. Fragility analysis is typically employed in this regard, serving as the basis for evaluating mean annual frequencies of measures that support decision-making. As recently shown by the authors, fragility functions are consistently captured by softmax function instead of the typically used lognormal distribution. This work expands these findings to dependent Markov models that generalize the classical structural fragility framework to account for longitudinal dependencies among multiple damage states, enabling damage prediction over the structural life-cycle. Featuring a specialized case of dynamic Bayesian networks, the suggested Markov models are dependent to some informative ground motion intensity measures and are modeled based on relevant longitudinal structural responses. Information over the structural damage states can be either complete or partial, which categorizes the corresponding approach into either a dependent Markov or a dependent hidden Markov model, respectively. The likelihood-based objectives can be computed by standard optimization, whereas in the presence of hidden states, solution can be found through Expectation-Maximization steps. Numerical results demonstrate the efficacy of the models to predict long-term damage evolution and it is seen that hidden models reveal more consistent transitions, by virtue of their structure that handles responses as uncertain damage indicators. The implementation details of each formulation are presented and practical suggestions are given.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication11th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering 2018, NCEE 2018
Subtitle of host publicationIntegrating Science, Engineering, and Policy
PublisherEarthquake Engineering Research Institute
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9781510873254
StatePublished - 2018
Event11th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering 2018: Integrating Science, Engineering, and Policy, NCEE 2018 - Los Angeles, United States
Duration: Jun 25 2018Jun 29 2018

Publication series

Name11th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering 2018, NCEE 2018: Integrating Science, Engineering, and Policy


Conference11th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering 2018: Integrating Science, Engineering, and Policy, NCEE 2018
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityLos Angeles

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology


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