TY - JOUR
T1 - Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea
AU - Kim, Oh Seok
AU - Han, Jihyun
AU - Kim, Kee Whan
AU - Matthews, Stephen A.
AU - Shim, Changsub
N1 - Funding Information:
The research was supported by the Korea University Grant (College of Education 2022) and based on the work of the Korea Environment Institute (RE2019-12). J.H. was supported by the Seoul Institute of Technology (2021-AE-007, A basic study for the management of high ozone episodes by autonomous districts (Gu): Focused on the current status of air pollutants and health effects). S.A.M. wishes to acknowledge the Population Research Institute (PRI), which is supported by a grant from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD041025) and by the Pennsylvania State University and its Social Science Research Institute. C.S. was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMI2021-01612). Lastly, we send many thanks to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their knowledgeable feedback and clear guidance when revising the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors
PY - 2022/1
Y1 - 2022/1
N2 - South Korea's population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to incorporate demographic dynamics. We analyze business-as-usual (BAU) population and climate scenarios—where BAU refers to no significant change in current processes and trends in either domain—from 2010 to 2060 for South Korea. Data for both BAU scenarios are spatially linked and used to measure and identify national and sub-national and age-group specific EHE exposure. The results reveal an increasing exposure to EHE over time at the national level, but this varies widely within the country, measured at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure levels will be in the decade ending in 2040 driven by high estimated severe EHE. Sub-nationally, Seoul will be the most vulnerable municipality associated with super aging, while severe EHE not demographic factors will be relevant in Daegu, the second-most vulnerable metropolitan area. By 2060, national estimates suggest the older population will be up to four times more exposed to EHE than today. While the population of South Korea will decline, the rapid aging of the population ensures that specific regions of the country will become exceedingly vulnerable to EHE.
AB - South Korea's population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to incorporate demographic dynamics. We analyze business-as-usual (BAU) population and climate scenarios—where BAU refers to no significant change in current processes and trends in either domain—from 2010 to 2060 for South Korea. Data for both BAU scenarios are spatially linked and used to measure and identify national and sub-national and age-group specific EHE exposure. The results reveal an increasing exposure to EHE over time at the national level, but this varies widely within the country, measured at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure levels will be in the decade ending in 2040 driven by high estimated severe EHE. Sub-nationally, Seoul will be the most vulnerable municipality associated with super aging, while severe EHE not demographic factors will be relevant in Daegu, the second-most vulnerable metropolitan area. By 2060, national estimates suggest the older population will be up to four times more exposed to EHE than today. While the population of South Korea will decline, the rapid aging of the population ensures that specific regions of the country will become exceedingly vulnerable to EHE.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100456
DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100456
M3 - Article
C2 - 37799350
AN - SCOPUS:85136522799
SN - 2212-0963
VL - 38
JO - Climate Risk Management
JF - Climate Risk Management
M1 - 100456
ER -
