Deterrence in a multipolar world: Prompt attacks, regional challenges, and US-Russian deterrence

The character of nuclear deterrence in the twenty-first century, compared to the Cold War years, will undergo important changes, even if its basic nature does not. The potential for the spread of nuclear weapons among regional actors in the Middle East and in South and East Asia creates an increased possibility of disruptive behavior, including nuclear crises or, in the worst case, nuclear wars. This article considers the regional and systemic aspects of prompt attacks within the context of possible nuclear proliferation and the implications of that condition for nuclear deterrence and crisis stability between the United States and Russia.