Distinguishing hares and tortoises in the field: Applicants' prediction of patent value flows

Applicants can predict before filing whether an invention will generate high early value flows, even within narrow technical fields. For United States patents with “priority” Chinese applications, an applicant's choice of Chinese utility model, granted faster but with shorter life than an invention patent, is a significant predictor of early value flow, as proxied by early post-grant citations. In our sample of Chinese - U.S. patent dyads, prior utility model choice significantly positively predicts four proxies for private value of the subsequent US patent: total forward citations, stock market value estimate at grant, litigation and reassignments, but also fewer patent renewals. Higher predicted patent value does not imply more persistent private value flow, falsifying an assumption crucial for estimation of substantial “option value” from patent renewal fees.