Do the asean countries have a common business cycle?

Rajen Mookerjee, Jose L. Tongzon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper explores the nature and characteristics of business cycles for a group of five small open economies that comprise the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Business cycles are generated as transiterory fluctuations around a stochastic trend. The results show that there is qualified evidence of common business cycles among the ASEAN countries. Sources of common variation in cycles are explored by correlating ASEAN country cycles to cycles in the USA and Japan. The results show that US and Japanese cycles are a major cause of cycles in the ASEAN countries. Cointegration tests reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship between US business and investment cycles and similar cycles in the ASEAN group of countries.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)58-81
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of the Asia Pacific Economy
Issue number1
StatePublished - 1997

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Development
  • Political Science and International Relations


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