Does the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) accurately predict mortality for patients with elevated MELD scores?

Madeline B. Torres, Eric W. Schaefer, Neekita Jikaria, Gail Ortenzi, Amanda B. Cooper

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: The Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) predicts mortality for liver disease patients. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) estimates mortality risk for surgical patients; however, NSQIP does not collect data regarding liver disease. This study's aim was to examine the accuracy of NSQIP mortality estimates for patients with elevated MELD scores. Methods: NSQIP participant user files from 2005 to 2016 were queried. MELD scores were calculated and patients with scores ≥10 included. NSQIP-predicted mortality was compared to actual mortality. Results: 268,873 patients met inclusion criteria. Predicted and observed number of 30-day postoperative deaths were 20,644 (7.7%) and 21,764 (8.1%). For patients with MELD ≥24, NSQIP-predicted 30-day mortality underestimated actual mortality. For patients with MELD ≤22, predicted and actual risks were similar. Conclusion: NSQIP predicts 30-day mortality risk well for patients with MELD scores from 10 to 22, but underestimates risk for patients with higher MELD scores.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)475-482
Number of pages8
JournalAmerican Journal of Surgery
Volume224
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Surgery

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Does the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) accurately predict mortality for patients with elevated MELD scores?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this