Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

Douglas J. Kennett; Marilyn Masson; Carlos Peraza Lope; Stanley Serafin; Richard J. George; Tom C. Spencer; Julie A. Hoggarth; Brendan J. Culleton; Thomas K. Harper; Keith M. Prufer; Susan Milbrath; Bradley W. Russell; Eunice Uc González; Weston C. McCool; Valorie V. Aquino; Elizabeth H. Paris; Jason H. Curtis; Norbert Marwan; Mingua Zhang; Yemane Asmerom; Victor J. Polyak; Stacy A. Carolin; Daniel H. James; Andrew J. Mason; Gideon M. Henderson; Mark Brenner; James U.L. Baldini; Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach; David A. Hodell

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

Douglas J. Kennett, Marilyn Masson, Carlos Peraza Lope, Stanley Serafin, Richard J. George, Tom C. Spencer, Julie A. Hoggarth, Brendan J. Culleton, Thomas K. Harper, Keith M. Prufer, Susan Milbrath, Bradley W. Russell, Eunice Uc González, Weston C. McCool, Valorie V. Aquino, Elizabeth H. Paris, Jason H. Curtis, Norbert Marwan, Mingua Zhang, Yemane AsmeromVictor J. Polyak, Stacy A. Carolin, Daniel H. James, Andrew J. Mason, Gideon M. Henderson, Mark Brenner, James U.L. Baldini, Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach, David A. Hodell

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Abstract

The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	3911
Journal	Nature communications
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x
State	Published - Dec 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Chemistry
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Physics and Astronomy

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Kennett, D. J., Masson, M., Lope, C. P., Serafin, S., George, R. J., Spencer, T. C., Hoggarth, J. A., Culleton, B. J., Harper, T. K., Prufer, K. M., Milbrath, S., Russell, B. W., González, E. U., McCool, W. C., Aquino, V. V., Paris, E. H., Curtis, J. H., Marwan, N., Zhang, M., ... Hodell, D. A. (2022). Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya. Nature communications, 13(1), Article 3911. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

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abstract = "The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucat{\'a}n Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.",

author = "Kennett, {Douglas J.} and Marilyn Masson and Lope, {Carlos Peraza} and Stanley Serafin and George, {Richard J.} and Spencer, {Tom C.} and Hoggarth, {Julie A.} and Culleton, {Brendan J.} and Harper, {Thomas K.} and Prufer, {Keith M.} and Susan Milbrath and Russell, {Bradley W.} and Gonz{\'a}lez, {Eunice Uc} and McCool, {Weston C.} and Aquino, {Valorie V.} and Paris, {Elizabeth H.} and Curtis, {Jason H.} and Norbert Marwan and Mingua Zhang and Yemane Asmerom and Polyak, {Victor J.} and Carolin, {Stacy A.} and James, {Daniel H.} and Mason, {Andrew J.} and Henderson, {Gideon M.} and Mark Brenner and Baldini, {James U.L.} and Breitenbach, {Sebastian F.M.} and Hodell, {David A.}",

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year = "2022",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x",

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Kennett, DJ, Masson, M, Lope, CP, Serafin, S, George, RJ, Spencer, TC, Hoggarth, JA, Culleton, BJ, Harper, TK, Prufer, KM, Milbrath, S, Russell, BW, González, EU, McCool, WC, Aquino, VV, Paris, EH, Curtis, JH, Marwan, N, Zhang, M, Asmerom, Y, Polyak, VJ, Carolin, SA, James, DH, Mason, AJ, Henderson, GM, Brenner, M, Baldini, JUL, Breitenbach, SFM & Hodell, DA 2022, 'Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya', Nature communications, vol. 13, no. 1, 3911. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

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AU - Masson, Marilyn

AU - Lope, Carlos Peraza

AU - Serafin, Stanley

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AU - Spencer, Tom C.

AU - Hoggarth, Julie A.

AU - Culleton, Brendan J.

AU - Harper, Thomas K.

AU - Prufer, Keith M.

AU - Milbrath, Susan

AU - Russell, Bradley W.

AU - González, Eunice Uc

AU - McCool, Weston C.

AU - Aquino, Valorie V.

AU - Paris, Elizabeth H.

AU - Curtis, Jason H.

AU - Marwan, Norbert

AU - Zhang, Mingua

AU - Asmerom, Yemane

AU - Polyak, Victor J.

AU - Carolin, Stacy A.

AU - James, Daniel H.

AU - Mason, Andrew J.

AU - Henderson, Gideon M.

AU - Brenner, Mark

AU - Baldini, James U.L.

AU - Breitenbach, Sebastian F.M.

AU - Hodell, David A.

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AB - The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

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VL - 13

JO - Nature communications

JF - Nature communications

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M1 - 3911

ER -

Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

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