Early predictors of weight loss in a 1-year behavioural weight-loss programme

Objective: Identifying early predictors of weight loss is key for developing personalized treatment. However, few individual factors have been identified that predict weight loss during intervention, other than early weight loss itself. Methods: Women with overweight or obesity (n = 186, mean ± SD age 50.0 ± 10.6 years, body mass index 34.0 ± 4.2 kg m⁻²) participated in the Portion-Control Strategies Trial, a 1-year randomized controlled weight-loss trial with three intervention groups. Early changes in eating behaviours and psychological factors were evaluated by questionnaires at baseline and Month 1. The influence of these early changes on the trajectory of weight loss from baseline to Months 3 and 12 was assessed by random coefficients models. Results: Although there were no differences in weight loss between intervention groups at the end of the trial, certain individual factors were shown to predict both early weight loss at Month 3 and longer-term weight loss at Month 12. Across all participants, increases in dietary restraint and healthy lifestyle ratings in the first month predicted more rapid weight loss from baseline to Month 3 (P < 0.05) and also predicted more rapid weight loss and slower regain from baseline to Month 12 (both P < 0.01). Early attendance and changes in disinhibition were not associated with subsequent weight loss. Conclusions: Changes in psychological and behavioural measures, such as restraint, in the first month of weight loss intervention predicted longer-term weight loss in women. Early additional support or tailored treatment could promote long-term success by reinforcing these behaviours.