TY - JOUR
T1 - Effects of winter storms and oceanographic conditions on survival to weaning
T2 - a 37 year study of northern elephant seals on the Farallon Islands
AU - Nur, Nadav
AU - Berger, Ryan W.
AU - Lee, Derek E.
AU - Warzybok, Pete M.
AU - Jahncke, Jaime
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank the many Point Blue Conservation Science biologists and volunteers who collected these data over the years, Julie Howar for expert GIS processing, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service for granting permission and providing resources to conduct research on the Farallon Islands National Wildlife Refuge. We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for insightful suggestions which have improved the manuscript. Funders for Point Blue's Farallon Research Program include the Bently Foundation, Elinor Patterson Baker Trust, Marisla Foundation, Giles W. and Elise G. Mead Foundation, Frank A. Campini Foundation, Bernice Barbour Foundation, Kimball Foundation, RHE Charitable Foundation, Volgenau Foundation, and individual donors. This is Point Blue Contribution no. 2356. The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Publisher Copyright:
© Inter-Research 2022.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Northern elephant seals Mirounga angustirostris were extirpated from California in the 19th century, and only in recent decades have they recolonized. A key demographic parameter underlying population viability is the survival of pups, from birth to weaning. We evaluated local factors acting directly on pup survival prior to weaning and basin-wide factors reflecting oceanic conditions which may impact maternal condition and behavior, using a 37 yr time series from 2 adjacent islands off central California: Southeast Farallon Island (SEFI) and West End Island (WEI). Mixed-effects logistic regression indicated that annual pup survival decreased with in - creasing frequency of extreme waves during January and February, which may inundate haulout locations when pups are present, and increased with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index, reflecting increased primary productivity. Moreover, the impact of extreme waves was manifest only for WEI, which may reflect a greater risk of inundation compared to SEFI. Annual pup survival was most highly correlated with NPGO values during the 6 mo period preceding and including arrival and the pupping period (fall and winter). Our findings suggest that favorable foraging conditions for females during the 4 mo prior to hauling out led to better maternal condition, which improved pup survival. Impacts of storm surges on pup survival is of concern since the frequency and severity of storms is expected to increase in the future. To support population recovery, we recommend studies consider demographic parameters such as recruitment of females to the Farallon breeding population and to adjacent coastal California colonies.
AB - Northern elephant seals Mirounga angustirostris were extirpated from California in the 19th century, and only in recent decades have they recolonized. A key demographic parameter underlying population viability is the survival of pups, from birth to weaning. We evaluated local factors acting directly on pup survival prior to weaning and basin-wide factors reflecting oceanic conditions which may impact maternal condition and behavior, using a 37 yr time series from 2 adjacent islands off central California: Southeast Farallon Island (SEFI) and West End Island (WEI). Mixed-effects logistic regression indicated that annual pup survival decreased with in - creasing frequency of extreme waves during January and February, which may inundate haulout locations when pups are present, and increased with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index, reflecting increased primary productivity. Moreover, the impact of extreme waves was manifest only for WEI, which may reflect a greater risk of inundation compared to SEFI. Annual pup survival was most highly correlated with NPGO values during the 6 mo period preceding and including arrival and the pupping period (fall and winter). Our findings suggest that favorable foraging conditions for females during the 4 mo prior to hauling out led to better maternal condition, which improved pup survival. Impacts of storm surges on pup survival is of concern since the frequency and severity of storms is expected to increase in the future. To support population recovery, we recommend studies consider demographic parameters such as recruitment of females to the Farallon breeding population and to adjacent coastal California colonies.
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U2 - 10.3354/meps14066
DO - 10.3354/meps14066
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85133761949
SN - 0171-8630
VL - 691
SP - 173
EP - 189
JO - Marine Ecology Progress Series
JF - Marine Ecology Progress Series
ER -