Employment, deterrence, and crime in a dynamic model

Susumu Imai, Kala Krishna

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

39 Scopus citations


Using maximum likelihood techniques and monthly panel data we solve and estimate an explicitly dynamic model of criminal behavior where current criminal activity impacts future labor market outcomes. We show that the threat of future adverse effects in the labor market when arrested acts as a strong deterrent to crime. Moreover, such forward-looking behavior is estimated to be important. Hence, policies that weaken this deterrence will be much less effective in fighting crime. This suggests that prevention is more powerful than redemption since anticipated redemption allows criminals to look forward to negating the consequences of their crimes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)845-872
Number of pages28
JournalInternational Economic Review
Issue number3
StatePublished - Aug 2004

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics


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