TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
AU - COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium
AU - Davies, Nicholas G.
AU - Abbott, Sam
AU - Barnard, Rosanna C.
AU - Jarvis, Christopher I.
AU - Kucharski, Adam J.
AU - Munday, James D.
AU - Pearson, Carl A.B.
AU - Russell, Timothy W.
AU - Tully, Damien C.
AU - Washburne, Alex D.
AU - Wenseleers, Tom
AU - Gimma, Amy
AU - Waites, William
AU - Wong, Kerry L.M.
AU - van Zandvoort, Kevin
AU - Silverman, Justin D.
AU - Diaz-Ordaz, Karla
AU - Keogh, Ruth
AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.
AU - Funk, Sebastian
AU - Jit, Mark
AU - Atkins, Katherine E.
AU - Edmunds, W. John
N1 - Funding Information:
Supported by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Research England, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation (NIHR200929), and UK Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_PC_19065) (N.G.D.); Wellcome Trust (WT) (210758/Z/18/Z) (S.A.); European Commission (EC) (EpiPose 101003688) (R.C.B.); Global Challenges Research Fund managed through Research Councils UK and the Economic and Social Research Council (RECAP ES/P010873/1) (C.I.J.); WT (206250/Z/17/Z) and NIHR (NIHR200908) (A.J.K.); WT (210758/Z/18/Z) (J.D.M.); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (OPP1184344) and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO)/WT (221303/Z/ 20/Z) (C.A.B.P.); WT (206250/Z/17/Z) (T.W.R.); EC (EpiPose 101003688) (A.G.); NIHR (COV0335) and MRC (MR/V027956/1) (W.W.); FCDO/WT (221303/Z/20/Z) and Elrha's Research for Health in Humanitarian Crises Programme funded by FCDO, WT, and NIHR (K.v.Z.); Royal Society-WT Sir Henry Dale Fellowship 218554/Z/19/Z (K.D.-O.); UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/ S017968/1) (R.K.); Health Data Research UK (MR/S003975/1), MRC (MC_PC 19065), and NIHR (NIHR200908) (R.M.E.); WT (210758/Z/18/Z) and NIHR (NIHR200908) (S.F.); BMGF (INV-003174, INV-016832), NIHR (16/137/109, NIHR200929, NIHR200908), and EC (EpiPose 101003688) (M.J.); European Research Council (757688) (K.E.A.); and EC (EpiPose 101003688) and NIHR (NIHR200908) (W.J.E.). COG-UK is supported by funding from the MRC, part of UKRI; the NIHR; and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute.
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works
PY - 2021/4/9
Y1 - 2021/4/9
N2 - A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
AB - A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.abg3055originally
DO - 10.1126/science.abg3055originally
M3 - Article
C2 - 33658326
AN - SCOPUS:85103486726
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 372
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 6538
M1 - eabg3055
ER -
