Estimating South Africa's Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate

Johannes W. Fedderke, Daniel K. Mengisteab

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

19 Scopus citations


This paper estimates the potential output of the South African economy using several filters. We demonstrate that potential output measures are very sensitive to the different methodologies. We also provide estimates of South Africa's potential growth rate over the 1960–2015 period. Current estimates of the potential growth rate fall in the 1.9%–2.3% range. However, the evidence suggests that the rate is under considerable downward pressure. South African potential growth may be headed toward the 1% range. The strongest decline is in the real sectors of the economy (Manufacturing, Mining), the greatest resilience in the service sectors (financial in particular).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)161-177
Number of pages17
JournalSouth African Journal of Economics
Issue number2
StatePublished - Jun 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics


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