Estimating the impact of fuel-switching between liquid fuels and electricity under electricity-sector carbon-pricing schemes

Switching from liquid fuels to electricity in the transportation and heating sectors can result in greenhouse gas emissions reductions. These reductions are maximized when electricity-sector carbon emissions are constrained through policy measures. We use a linear optimization, generation expansion/dispatch model to evaluate the impact of increased electricity demand for plug-in electric vehicle charging on the generating portfolio, overall generating fuel mix, and the costs of electricity generation. We apply this model to the PJM Interconnect and ISO-New England Regional Transmission Organization service areas assuming a CO₂ pricing scheme that is applied to the electricity sector but does not directly regulate emissions from other sectors. We find that a shift from coal toward natural gas and wind generation is sufficient to achieve a 50% reduction in electricity-sector CO₂ emissions while supporting vehicle charging for 25% of the vehicle fleet. The price impacts of these shifts are sensitive to demand side price responsiveness and the capital costs of new wind construction.