Evaluation of short-range ensemble forecasts during the SPC/NSSL 2003 spring program

The 2003 annual spring program conducted by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) is discussed. The main focus of the 2003 experiments was to evaluate short-range ensemble forecasts (SREF) and high-resolution numerical model forecasts for severe weather forecasting. The primary goal of the SREF program was to evaluate SREF data for use in an experimental severe weather outlook for the United States. The other part of the experiment involved forecast participation in generating a 32-member, 48-hour MM5 model ensemble forecast, using the MM5 adjoint.