Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games

David M. Pennock; Steve Lawrence; Finn Årup Nielsen; C. Lee Giles

doi:10.1145/502512.502537

Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games

David M. Pennock, Steve Lawrence, Finn Årup Nielsen, C. Lee Giles

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

46 Scopus citations

Abstract

Game sites on the World Wide Web draw people from around the world with specialized interests, skills, and knowledge. Data from the games often reflects the players' expertise and will to win. We extract probabilistic forecasts from data obtained from three online games: the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), the Foresight Exchange (FX), and the Formula One Pick Six (F1P6) competition. We find that alt three yield accurate forecasts of uncertain future events. In particular, prices of so-called "movie stocks" on HSX are good indicators of actual box office returns. Prices of HSX securities in Oscar, Emmy, and Grammy awards correlate well with observed frequencies of winning. FX prices are reliable indicators of future developments in science and technology. Collective predictions from players in the F1 competition serve as good forecasts of true race outcomes. In some cases, forecasts induced from game data are more reliable than expert opinions. We argue that web games naturally attract well-informed and well-motivated players, and thus offer a valuable and oft-overlooked source of high-quality data with significant predictive value.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
Editors	F. Provost, R. Srikant, M. Schkolnick, D. Lee
Publisher	Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)
Pages	174-183
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Print)	158113391X, 9781581133912
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1145/502512.502537
State	Published - 2001
Event	Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD-2001) - San Francisco, CA, United States Duration: Aug 26 2001 → Aug 29 2001

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining

Other

Other	Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD-2001)
Country/Territory	United States
City	San Francisco, CA
Period	8/26/01 → 8/29/01

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Engineering

Access to Document

10.1145/502512.502537

Cite this

Pennock, D. M., Lawrence, S., Nielsen, F. Å., & Giles, C. L. (2001). Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games. In F. Provost, R. Srikant, M. Schkolnick, & D. Lee (Eds.), Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (pp. 174-183). (Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining). Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). https://doi.org/10.1145/502512.502537

Pennock, David M. ; Lawrence, Steve ; Nielsen, Finn Årup et al. / Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games. Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. editor / F. Provost ; R. Srikant ; M. Schkolnick ; D. Lee. Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), 2001. pp. 174-183 (Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining).

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title = "Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games",

abstract = "Game sites on the World Wide Web draw people from around the world with specialized interests, skills, and knowledge. Data from the games often reflects the players' expertise and will to win. We extract probabilistic forecasts from data obtained from three online games: the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), the Foresight Exchange (FX), and the Formula One Pick Six (F1P6) competition. We find that alt three yield accurate forecasts of uncertain future events. In particular, prices of so-called {"}movie stocks{"} on HSX are good indicators of actual box office returns. Prices of HSX securities in Oscar, Emmy, and Grammy awards correlate well with observed frequencies of winning. FX prices are reliable indicators of future developments in science and technology. Collective predictions from players in the F1 competition serve as good forecasts of true race outcomes. In some cases, forecasts induced from game data are more reliable than expert opinions. We argue that web games naturally attract well-informed and well-motivated players, and thus offer a valuable and oft-overlooked source of high-quality data with significant predictive value.",

author = "Pennock, {David M.} and Steve Lawrence and Nielsen, {Finn {\AA}rup} and Giles, {C. Lee}",

year = "2001",

doi = "10.1145/502512.502537",

language = "English (US)",

isbn = "158113391X",

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publisher = "Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)",

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booktitle = "Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining",

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note = "Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD-2001) ; Conference date: 26-08-2001 Through 29-08-2001",

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Pennock, DM, Lawrence, S, Nielsen, FÅ & Giles, CL 2001, Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games. in F Provost, R Srikant, M Schkolnick & D Lee (eds), Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), pp. 174-183, Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD-2001), San Francisco, CA, United States, 8/26/01. https://doi.org/10.1145/502512.502537

Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games. / Pennock, David M.; Lawrence, Steve; Nielsen, Finn Årup et al.
Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. ed. / F. Provost; R. Srikant; M. Schkolnick; D. Lee. Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), 2001. p. 174-183 (Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

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AU - Lawrence, Steve

AU - Nielsen, Finn Årup

AU - Giles, C. Lee

PY - 2001

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N2 - Game sites on the World Wide Web draw people from around the world with specialized interests, skills, and knowledge. Data from the games often reflects the players' expertise and will to win. We extract probabilistic forecasts from data obtained from three online games: the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), the Foresight Exchange (FX), and the Formula One Pick Six (F1P6) competition. We find that alt three yield accurate forecasts of uncertain future events. In particular, prices of so-called "movie stocks" on HSX are good indicators of actual box office returns. Prices of HSX securities in Oscar, Emmy, and Grammy awards correlate well with observed frequencies of winning. FX prices are reliable indicators of future developments in science and technology. Collective predictions from players in the F1 competition serve as good forecasts of true race outcomes. In some cases, forecasts induced from game data are more reliable than expert opinions. We argue that web games naturally attract well-informed and well-motivated players, and thus offer a valuable and oft-overlooked source of high-quality data with significant predictive value.

AB - Game sites on the World Wide Web draw people from around the world with specialized interests, skills, and knowledge. Data from the games often reflects the players' expertise and will to win. We extract probabilistic forecasts from data obtained from three online games: the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), the Foresight Exchange (FX), and the Formula One Pick Six (F1P6) competition. We find that alt three yield accurate forecasts of uncertain future events. In particular, prices of so-called "movie stocks" on HSX are good indicators of actual box office returns. Prices of HSX securities in Oscar, Emmy, and Grammy awards correlate well with observed frequencies of winning. FX prices are reliable indicators of future developments in science and technology. Collective predictions from players in the F1 competition serve as good forecasts of true race outcomes. In some cases, forecasts induced from game data are more reliable than expert opinions. We argue that web games naturally attract well-informed and well-motivated players, and thus offer a valuable and oft-overlooked source of high-quality data with significant predictive value.

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ER -

Pennock DM, Lawrence S, Nielsen FÅ, Giles CL. Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games. In Provost F, Srikant R, Schkolnick M, Lee D, editors, Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). 2001. p. 174-183. (Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining). doi: 10.1145/502512.502537

Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games

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